Harris (left) and Trump (right).
Image source: The Associated Press
How Vice President Kamala Harris suffered defeat at the hands of former President Donald Trump
By Lianne Ohayon, Associate Editor
On November 5th, 2024, United States citizens casted their ballots in one of the world’s most anticipated presidential elections. After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race three months before Election Day, current Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee and ran against former President Donald J. Trump. Despite marginally winning the popular vote (49.9% to 48.4%), Trump clinched the Oval Office for four more years, taking 312 electoral votes over Harris’ 226.
Why did Election Night unfold the way it did?
Trump’s victory was far from predictable. Over the course of her campaign, Harris gained significant traction across voters, leading national polls with a thin margin since her entrance at the end of July 2024. By election day, Harris led by 48% compared to Trump’s 47%. Critical swing states were variable in which candidate the public supported. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin leaned Democrat; Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona leaned Republican.
However, the United States’ electoral system ultimately comes down to the Electoral College. Intended to represent the popular vote, this independent group of individuals chosen by each state votes directly to elect the president. There are 538 electors in total (one for each seat in the House of Representatives and Congress). A president needs 270 votes to win.
In the end, both the popular vote and electoral vote united for a Trump victory.
Harris seemed to be appealing to many Democratic voters who were unsatisfied with Biden, with her aggressive and well-funded campaign (to the tune of $1 billion), key endorsements from politicians, philanthropists, and celebrities, and an arguably successful debate against the former president.
Unfortunately, this was merely a facade. Her failure to separate herself from Biden’s “flatlining” campaign and appear as a “turn-the-page” candidate was reflected in the results. As such, the Harris campaign always seemed to be “running uphill,” burdened with the baggage of the current president’s low approval rating amidst disgruntled constituents. Additionally, given the limited timeframe in which Harris had to campaign, voters were robbed of the opportunity to get to know her outside of Biden’s shadow.
The core of Harris’ loss, however, arises from her inaccurate assessment of her voting demographic and inability to appeal strongly enough to her desired audience. Known as the “theory of the case,” Kamala’s platform was grounded in fighting for reproductive rights, an issue that strongly impacts women and could motivate them to organize around her campaign. However, the amount of women who mobilized for Harris was smaller than Biden in 2020 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. The current Vice President won women by 10 points compared to 15 for Biden and 13 for Clinton.
In tandem, Harris spent a large portion of her campaign emphasizing the threat Trump poses to the United States’ democracy. She hit the nail on the head by delivering her closing pitch to voters at the site of Trump’s incendiary speech before the storming of the capital on January 6th, 2021. Although his right-wing, populist platform (and corresponding future legislation) signifies the harrowing rise of authoritarian ideologies in the United States, Trump’s image and appeal have entrenched themselves too deeply into voters in the last few years to be chipped away at by Harris so late in the game.
On the flip side, Trump’s campaign was spot on with their theory of the case. He expanded the existing Republican target demographic of white, middle-class workers to “an ethnic working-class coalition” with a wider age-range, notably attracting young male voters to join the crowd.
Furthermore, the core tenets of the Trump platform drew on the cult of personality he developed with his voters–people know who Trump is and they aren’t afraid to show it. Critically, he exploited Harris’ stance on transgender issues and used it against her, reinforcing his appeal in more conservative audiences.
Now, a few weeks post-election, the short-term future (and long-term implications) of the United States is actualizing. As Biden rides out the end of his presidential term and Trump swears the oath of office once again, it is clear that the next four years will be tumultuous. With an ever-expanding cabinet filled with controversial individuals (Pete Hegseth, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., etc.) and marginal control of both the House of Representatives and Senate, the world has only gotten a taste of what’s to come post-January 20th, 2025.
